Post-Season Eval, Padlock Stats, & "Getting 6"
Happy basketball tournament season to all.
Even so, football is always on my mind.
After a football season that was difficult defensively, I became obsessive. Actually I’m pretty obsessive in general as a coach. But even more intensely so when I’m analyzing a season where we gave up way more points and yards than is acceptable.
The yards and points per game are the easy stats, the one anyone can look at and comment on. I obviously start with that, but those numbers have very little explanatory power on their own. One has to keep on digging to find the roots of the problem, otherwise an offseason plan and spring football program won’t be as useful. For us, poor tackling plagued us, which is key. So obviously, our offseason program is currently hammering away in the weight and mat rooms on physicality, selling out, pushing through discomfort, and breaking through old bad habits.
Still, as I analyze a season, I am looking for patterns and metrics to tell me what aspects of statistical performance correlate most with winning from a defensive perspective.
If you delve into College Football podcasts, you may have listened to The Late Kick with Josh Pate. When he analyzes games, he often refers to what he describes as “Padlock Stats.” Padlock Stats are numbers that, all by themselves, reveal the outcome of a game without even telling you the final score. In other words, it tells you who won without telling you who won; if a team totaled -12 yards of offense in the game, you know there is close to a 100% chance that they lost the game. You don’t need to see the final score.
As such, I am always looking for my own Padlock measurements in my defensive analytics. And I just may have found it, courtesy of Brian Newberry, Head Coach at Navy, and previously the Academy’s longtime defensive coordinator. Newberry used a tool that he called “Getting 6.” His “6” refers to the total combined number of 3 & Outs, 4th Down stops, and turnovers. When the Navy defense totaled 6 or more, they won the overwhelming majority of their games. Of course, the correlation wasn’t perfect. But getting 6 was VERY strongly correlated with wins and losses. This December, I decided to apply Newberry’s Get 6 formula to our own ‘23 season and see if it held true for us.
Lo and behold, the results were powerful:
‘23 Overall Record: 5-5
Record when we Got 6 or more: 4-0
Record when we fell short of Getting 6: 1-5
“Get 6” was 90% correlated with our wins and losses. We had an explosive offense that lit up opponents all year, as we often struggled to get stops. But when we Got 6, we didn’t lose a game.
It seems that Getting 6 just might be our Padlock Stat(s). Yards and points obviously matter a great deal, but high school football is chaotic and unpredictable, and short fields are often a factor at our level, where true specialist kickers are hard to come by. Kickoffs often don’t result in touchbacks, and punts in plus territory are rare. Turnovers are an inevitability with 15-17 year olds, so it’s a matter of getting on loose balls and making QB’s pay for bad throws and reads. You should get at least 1 turnover per game. So, combining 3 & Outs, 4th Down stops, and turnovers will often tell a pretty damn clear story. In terms of application, we have to emphasize 1st down efficiency, creating longer late downs (7-plus preferably), and be rock solid on situational tendencies. And to state the blindingly obvious, WE HAVE TO TACKLE WELL. “We’re there” is a common refrain for high school coaches on the defensive side. Our kids fit correctly, or pattern match correctly, then miss a tackle, don’t play the ball, or don’t sell out. I believe that stuff is largely fixable and we’re working on it now.
Defensive coaches, as you look at your offseason analytics and planning, I think Get 6 is a great tool. It can help you zero in on trouble spots, and see how particular situations and plays can really swing your outcomes and your overall record.
